Effect of failed economic polices on the State of Atlanta ...
The
recent Georgia State University report (included below) on economic growth in Atlanta
presents some insights into the long term effect of the current
failed economic policies on one local economy. There is good news
and bad news. The bad news is that the effect of the failed policies
will only continue to grow, the good news is that if you, the
citizens demand an end to these policies soon, recovery can occur without
major problems.
Lets start by looking at some of the job summary information in
the report:
For instance, since recession ended in late 2001,
metro Atlanta has added 11,700 jobs in leisure and
hospitality, work that averages $17,400 a year.
During that same period, manufacturing, with
paychecks averaging $48,600 a year, shrank by 19,200.
About 15,900 telecommunications jobs, averaging salaries
of $60,500, have vanished. Information jobs, which pay
an average of $61,200, have declined by 18,200.
Management in science and technology, which averages
$60,000 a year, has shed 3,000 positions.
Another troubling piece of information in the report:
The drag on growth, he said, will come from a slowing
in the housing market and slowing overseas demand for
Georgia-made goods.
Outsourcing:
You can see the imprint of outsourcing in this report. Some
Georgia based employers have been the leading participants in
shipping jobs to foreign countries. This even includes YOUR State
Government using YOUR tax dollars which have been and are being used
to ship jobs to foreign countries.
Now the Bush Administration, Congress, the Senate and even our
own resident guru, Governor Perdue tell us that this is good for us.
He claims every job shipped to a foreign country by outsourcing
generates anywhere from 1.14 to 2.0 newly created jobs. He claims outsourced
jobs and empty call centers, development centers and offices
generate more jobs than are lost:
Where are they? They must be in the
same place as the Flag vote he promised to support!
Based upon the "good for us" theory these employment areas should
be booming considering the rate at which they are being outsourced
to foreign countries. But instead the report states:
Technology companies, especially, are
still shedding jobs,
Is that your definition of "good for us?" This
is a trend that needs to be reversed. The only way to reverse the
trend is to change the failed economic polices to discourage rather
than encourage sending jobs to foreign countries. The only way that
the policies will be changed is when you - the citizens - demand
they be changed.
Governor Sonny Perdue has obviously endorsed
the current Administration position on outsourcing as during his
administration the usage of your tax dollars to send jobs to foreign
countries has increased and SB-12 to end that practice sits in
committee.
Expensive
Trade (economists and politicians call it "Free Trade":
The report clearly points out the steady
loss of manufacturing jobs. With the Clinton and Bush
Administrations both pushing the mis-named Free Trade mentality, and
now the Perdue Administration joining the chorus, factory after
factory have closed and moved to foreign countries.
So the report uses political double speak,
double meaning that it represents both the Republican and Democratic
party positions:
slowing overseas demand for
Georgia-made goods.
What this really means is that due to the
loss of manufacturing jobs, there are less products manufactured in
Georgia to sell! Economists and politicians have trouble
understanding that empty factories do not produce very much! Every
area has a few, just drive by and park in the parking lot - if it is
not chained off. Count how many trucks pull out loaded with
products!
Factories
are still closing and moving to foreign countries and manufacturing
employment continues to drop - and will continue this downward trend
until you - the citizens demand that it change. Governor Perdue is
pushing FTAA, CAFTA and who knows how many other alphabet soup
Expensive Trade agreements. Is he representing you or special
interests?
Illegal Immigration:
One of the effects of illegal immigration is
downward pressure on wages. Well the largest growth area in Atlanta
jobs is in:
More troublesome is the balance, which has been
tilted toward lower incomes, Dhawan said
These average $17,400 a year, which is well below the established
poverty level. In other words the area of greatest job growth in
Atlanta is now in the section of the economy that has the highest
utilization of social services, which are paid for by either your
taxes or your children through government borrowing. Now that is a
plan for success isn't it! Great news, our fastest growing area of
employment is under the poverty level!
Most national studies show that a large percentage of new jobs
created are being filled by illegal immigrants at lower than
prevailing wages. Obviously Georgia is not an exception. Do not look
for this trend to change soon, Governor Sonny Perdue has endorsed
the Bush Administration plan to establish unlimited immigration in
the form of amnesty in disguise - called guest workers.
"Guest workers" is just more political double speak used by
both the Republicans and Democrats. Illegal immigration is too high,
so fix the problem by making it legal and increasing the numbers and
problem even more!
Despite repeated claims that this is good for us, it is not and
this trend needs to be reversed. It will not be reversed until you -
the citizens - demand that it be reversed.
H1-B Visas:
Another policy that affects the employment picture, especially
from the perspective of Georgians who are employees are H1-B (and L)
visas. These allow thousands of foreign nations to enter our country
legally, not be counted against the legal immigration quotas to take
jobs when an American Company sponsors them. Of course, if the
company ends their sponsorship, they are deported. So they become a
captive audience so to speak and guess what? Since they are hesitant
to complain about either salaries or work conditions - both
deteriorate.
Well if the job market is running below expectations, here and
in the country - why are we issuing MORE H1-B visas? There are
somewhere in the neighborhood of 35,000 in Georgia! Mostly
concentrated in Atlanta.
Conclusion:
In this one single economic report you can see the continuing
effects of the failed economic policies of our federal and State
governments. Now some will say - well it was not that bad!
Of course just taking a look at one of these reports by
itself, that is a fair statement. But there are two very important
points that have to be overlooked to make that statement:
- Our current economic status is being fueled by over one
trillion - $1,000,000,000,000.00 of debt a year! That is 400 - 500
billion dollars of deficit spending AND 600 - 700 billion dollars
of trade deficit. The economy should be soaring! It is not! We can
not continue to run these massive deficits forever and what will
happen when the cut backs come? With one trillion dollars of
stimulus, "slow" growth is failure!
- And of course this analysis is not just the result of one
economic report. Every report it is the same ole story, even with
massive deficit spending the economy remains "soft," or
"making great progress, but ... " or "on the road to recovery" -
the song remains the same.
Now for those who say, well that is just Atlanta. Wrong again,
just yesterday the Georgia State Department of Labor released the
state report. Quoting State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond:
"Annual job growth remains weak
throughout the state and there are currently 31,000 more unemployed
workers than at this time last year. Hopefully, the slow growth will
turn around soon."
Ladies and Gentlemen, even with massive deficit spending
fueling the economy, the effects of Expensive Trade, Illegal
Immigration, Outsourcing, H1-B and other visas are dragging our
economy down. When the inevitable deficit spending cut backs come
that "slow" growth will be even slower or even negative.
It is up to you the citizens to decide if we will wait or
begin to correct the problems sooner.
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Growth slowdown predicted
> GSU cuts forecast for year year
> By
MICHAEL E. KANELL
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
> Published on: 05/26/05
When it comes to the local economy, "for every
positive, there seems to be a negative," said Rajeev
Dhawan, co-director of the Economic Forecasting Center
at Georgia State.
And in the next few months, the balance will shift
slightly and growth will slow, Dhawan said during the
center's quarterly forecasting conference Wednesday.
"I have lowered my growth projection a little bit for
the coming quarters," he said. "In the U.S., moderation
comes in 2006. In Atlanta, moderation comes in 2005."
The drag on growth, he said, will come from a slowing
in the housing market and slowing overseas demand for
Georgia-made goods.
While American households continue to pump money into
the economy, European and other economies are slowing.
"I do not see much kick coming in from the foreign
sector," Dhawan said. "It's not you. You keep
consuming."
Still, like a supertanker, the economy has momentum
and will not stop or turn quickly, he said. "You can hit
a reef — something like terrorism. But barring that
reef, [economic growth] may drop a little, it may slow a
little, but it is still going to keep going forward."
The economy will keep churning out jobs but in modest
numbers.
More troublesome is the balance, which has been
tilted toward lower incomes, Dhawan said.
For instance, since recession ended in late 2001,
metro Atlanta has added 11,700 jobs in leisure and
hospitality, work that averages $17,400 a year.
During that same period, manufacturing, with
paychecks averaging $48,600 a year, shrank by 19,200.
About 15,900 telecommunications jobs, averaging salaries
of $60,500, have vanished. Information jobs, which pay
an average of $61,200, have declined by 18,200.
Management in science and technology, which averages
$60,000 a year, has shed 3,000 positions.
Dhawan predicted the metro Atlanta economy will add
42,800 jobs this year, 48,800 next year and 45,100 the
year after.
The strongest growth will be in leisure and
hospitality, followed by lower-paid office workers, he
said.
Recent hiring has been strong in health care and
construction. But health care by itself cannot carry the
labor market, not when many big companies are either
shrinking or fighting to be stable.
Technology companies, especially, are still shedding
jobs, while military base closings promise at least
short-term bad news.
The construction sector benefits from some massive
projects, from Atlantic Station to the new runway at
Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
But it also depends on a continued housing boom, and
the long surge in housing will finally crest, Dhawan
said.
Nationally, sales of new and existing homes hit
records, underscoring the argument of some pessimists
that the market has become a "bubble," an unsustainable
rise.
Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says
some markets are due for a correction, while some
economists have predicted a damaging collapse.
But few analysts put metro Atlanta in the same league
as South Florida, Washington, New York or San Francisco
— where the pessimists say soaring prices are spurred by
speculation.
Though Atlanta housing has grown faster than jobs, a
comparison of markets shows Atlanta is not in the "red
zone," Dhawan said. "Atlanta is not too bad, not too
good."
Home sales still benefit from low rates for 30-year
mortgages. But short-term rates are up, and federal
regulators last week set out a host of guidelines meant
to rein in lending.
Not that the region's real estate will shrivel, just
slow, he said, adding that Atlanta, which has been the
nation's hottest market for new homes, will end the year
with about 50,785 starts. That's a 12 percent drop from
last year's frenzied building.
Housing starts probably will slip about 2 percent
next year and 3 percent in 2007, Dhawan projected.
"I still believe there will be orderly moderation in
home sales. We are not looking for a crash," he said. |
Source:
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/business/0505/26bizforecast.html
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